Well it’s been a tough couple of weeks. I’m off to the coast in the morning for a road bike trip that I’ll tell you more about later.

In the mean time I’ll spare both you and myself from any reiteration of events during these last few weeks but I would like to take a moment to comment on this debacle of airline merger hell we now find ourselves in - that’s you and me. I say that because I work in it and you either do too or, you’re a customer of this industry.

We are in the process of watching the airline industry completely reshape itself. It’s profound, alarming, and quite honestly downright scary as an employee to watch. The current phase of that restructuring is the merger mania we’re in now. Everyone’s panicky to get merged as soon as possible both out of desperation over the price of oil and in wanting to take advantage of the current administration that’s still in office. Airline managements feel the democrats (if they should win) would be less favorable to anything which would make the American public suffer anymore.

Now a little about mergers: Airline mergers are never good. That’s just an opinion and I realize a strong one at that, but in my own experience that always seems to be the case. Airlines merge not because they want to, but because they have to. Some in the “know” would also argue that there are no such things as mergers- that there are only just ‘acquisitions’ where one airline (the stronger one) absorbs a less stronger one. I guess I’d have a hard time arguing against that.

So seeing that airlines merge because they have to, it might make you wonder why. Here’s a short answer- It’s because when the market turns downward the airlines are at the ‘tip of the stick’ so to speak. It’s just an industry which feels the market’s highs and lows much more sensitively then many other industries. When people’s discretionary income goes down they don’t travel as much, plain and simple.

In these situations the airlines find themselves overloaded with too many employees, routes, and equipment. That’s when they cut back and often times merge when cutting back alone is not enough. You could almost call this the “basic tenants” of airline operating principal- A sad but true reality. But what comes when merging isn’t enough? Many of my peers and I feel that with the price of oil only going up, we are in very scary, uncharted territory now.

It’s hard when these things happen for us pilots because along with our pay our lifestyles also suffer. Many of us have to transfer to another airplane, domicile, and/or sometimes even have to move out of state just to keep our jobs. But that’s all based on seniority- when you were hired versus every other pilot. The longer you’ve been with an airline, the better off you are. Think of it as a totem pole. Those pilots that have been with the airline the longest tend to suffer the least when it comes to reduced flying and cutbacks.

All one can do is be prepared. I do this by continual study of the industry, which by the way this site and podcast are great for. So, if I had to make a few (albeit bold) predictions now, I’d guess that we’re going to see the following in the coming weeks and months:

• American will merge with Continental and British Airways will have some kind of stake and/or alliance in the resulting combined company
• United and USAir will merge and should not face the same kind of government grief they did before- I think this administration will be kinder in light of today’s woes. The resulting company’s future in my opinion is very dark though. I can already feel the tectonic plates of pilot discontentment brewing beneath this one and to say it’s going to get ugly on the pilot side would be an understatement. Plus there’s heavy overlap on both company’s routes which will require dramatic restructuring/cutting of people and equipment at an equally dramatic cost to the pilots involved.

All and all we’ll end up with just a few major airlines in the United States when the dust settles. When this exactly is… is anyone’s guess. But here’s what it will mean to the flying public:

• Fewer choices in airlines
• Fewer choices in routes
• Higher fairs
• Longer waits
• Increased growth at the regional airlines which will equal increased utilization of smaller regional aircraft

So, with all this uncertainty I figure I need a little time to myself to regroup. Like I posted on Twitter, I purchased a road bike. I’ll be heading off to Cambria, California tomorrow for a ride along the Big Sur. I’m hoping to get all the way to Ragged Point and back (24.4 miles each way) but we’ll see. One of the cool things is that I’ve got a GPS (typical geek) and can plot my actual course on Google Maps. So I’ll do that and post it here when I get back. Also, I’ll get another podcast out this Thursday or Friday.

Thanks for your continued patronage!
~Capt’n Chris

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